Oh, this one is easy: it's the bankers' games. When the economy is in decline, less activity will be generated in any field.
One obvious example: compared to the level in 2000 the flow of new software and techniques in Computing has very visibly dried out. The same security news remain at the top in the freshmeat RSS box for weeks.
Studies of how sand piles grow and fall found that many processes in nature AND in human endeavors follow a similar growth-decline-growth model. In general, without outside influence, each "process" tends to maintain a constant ratio of growth:decline no matter the size of the process at any given moment. For large markets, this tends to be 2:1.
Based on the provided graphs, if no "outside influence" comes into play, we can suspect Scheme follows this 2:1 ratio and, now that it has declined 50% from the growth phase, will not delcine much further.
If LISP likewise follows the 2:1 pattern and no "outside influence" comes into play, we can expect that interest will continue to fall to about 1200. To me, that signals, contrary to Anonymous' post, there SHOULD be concern for Lisp.
Oh, this one is easy: it's the bankers' games.
ReplyDeleteWhen the economy is in decline, less activity will be generated in any field.
One obvious example: compared to the level in 2000 the flow of new software and techniques in Computing has very visibly dried out.
The same security news remain at the top in the freshmeat RSS box for weeks.
So, I'd not be very concerned for Lisp as yet.
Studies of how sand piles grow and fall found that many processes in nature AND in human endeavors follow a similar growth-decline-growth model. In general, without outside influence, each "process" tends to maintain a constant ratio of growth:decline no matter the size of the process at any given moment. For large markets, this tends to be 2:1.
ReplyDeleteBased on the provided graphs, if no "outside influence" comes into play, we can suspect Scheme follows this 2:1 ratio and, now that it has declined 50% from the growth phase, will not delcine much further.
If LISP likewise follows the 2:1 pattern and no "outside influence" comes into play, we can expect that interest will continue to fall to about 1200. To me, that signals, contrary to Anonymous' post, there SHOULD be concern for Lisp.
DrDave
See newLISP forum popularity:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newlisp.org/images/newLISP-forum-2003-2008.png
Good, the popularity of Newlisp forum regularly increases, even in last few years when new dialects like Arc and Clojure are launched.
ReplyDeleteAgain, decline of comp.lang.lisp and comp.lang.scheme is almost certainly Usenet and not general Lisp/ Scheme phenomenon, because Reddit and Lisp forum and many new Lisp and Scheme blogs are started.